200 DMA- Here we come.

Finally Nifty Spot managed to close well above the 200 DMA.With better auto sales for the month of January and HSBC January PMI at 57.5 and the European rally helped our indices to scale new highs for the year.Reliance Ind. closed up by 2% as the buy back program kick started yesterday.Today is an important day as the Supreme court today decides whether the 2G licenses allotted during the tenure of the previous telecom minister should be cancelled on account of the irregularities in awarding the same.The Supreme court to pronounce its verdict on the case filed by Dr.Swamy to probe the present Home Minister's role in the 2G licenses issue during his tenure as the Finance Minister when the licenses were issued.

  Last time when the issue propped up the indices tanked for the day.Keep an eye on the same.SGX Nifty futures indicate that Nifty should be opening above the 5300 mark for the day.Avoid fresh positions till the verdict is out.Once the verdict is out,you can initiate long/short positions depending on the outcome.

  SEBI announced new norms yesterday on the IPP ( Institutional Placement Program) to help promoters to offload their stake.It is a welcome move as the Government is struggling to raise funds for the share sale program in the PSU stocks.

 All the Asian indices are trading in the positive territory for the day.French bond auction to take the center stage after the European open.France plans to sell around 6.5-8 Billion Euros worth of longer tenure bonds for the day.If they manage to sell at lower yields, the markets may move up further.

 Stay cautious ahead of the Supreme Court verdict.

Apologies for not writing in the past few days as I was tied up with a family function.Hope everyone booked profits in the OnMobile short-Medium term call given around 74.8. It made a high around 81 last Friday(8% move from the Buy levels).

Alex sir's Nifty View for the day.

Supports are at 5197 and 5149.  Resistances are at 5300 ,5320.These are spot Nifty levels.

Bidding adieu to Jan series.

The January series comes to an end today after a remarkable journey.Sensex had hit 17000 mark yesterday and Nifty managed to close above 5100 for the day.RBI announced a CRR cut by 50 basis points or half a percent in its policy meet.RBI also lowered the GDP forecast to 7% from the earlier 7.6%. Nifty and Bank nifty surged to make new highs for the day and heavy weights like SBI and L&T closed up by 5% for the day. The much awaited Reliance Ind. buy-back will be open from Feb 1st and will last till Jan 19th 2013.The maximum price for buy-back is set at Rs.870. In the year 2011, Reliance underperformed the index and was down by 35%. Friday after market hours the company announced its results for the third quarter and posted a drop in earnings.The buy-back is widely seen as a cover up for the bad results.

       Rupee today strengthened and closed at 50.07/08 to the US Dollar and in intra-day made a high of 49.925 against the Dollar.

        In the International front, data released yesterday in UK showed that the total public sector debt rose to a record high and crossed 1 trillion pound mark which is around 65% of UK's GDP. The debt plan of Greece reached nowhere yesterday and it triggered a sell-off in European markets.Greece has got more debt than it can actually pay.Adding fuel to the fire , S&P said it may likely declare ratings of Greece to, "Selective default".

        The European indices edged lower for the day and the US indices ended flat to negative.

      IMF said yesterday that the European debt crisis could send the world economy into recession and added that the epicenter of the damage is Europe but the rest of the world is increasingly affected.

       I expect our markets to be volatile ahead of expiry with a negative bias.Weak earnings from Europe can trigger a sell-off in the European markets in the near term.Nifty rallied 13% from the low it made on December 20th. I would advise caution at higher levels and would advise investors to book profits in banking and realty stocks.PSU banks' earnings to set the tone for Banking index in the near future,Buying index puts in Feb series is advisable.

Alex sir's Nifty(spot) view for the day.
Resistances are at 5140,5167.Supports are at 5088 and 5020.

Indian Markets-The week ahead

It was high drama on Friday as the indices were moving in a tight range in the first half and then started edging lower in the second half.Wipro announced better than expected earnings and was trading higher.Bajaj Auto and Hero moto corp extended the rally on Friday after posting a good set of numbers.Around 3 PM markets edged lower and made new lows for the day.It was around this time Axis Bank announced its Q3 results and the stock started moving up.HDFC and HDFC Bank which was trending lower for the day erased all the losses and started moving up after the Axis Bank announced a good set of numbers.Indices spurted suddenly around this time and Reliance which was expected to announce results after market hours started moving up too.Both the Sensex and Nifty scaled new highs in the last 30 minutes of trade and closed on a positive note for the week.
  After market hours Reliance Industries announced the results and the profits fell for the first time in two years.And Analysts felt that the shares buy back announced by the company is to cover up the bad results.The refining margin fell to 6.8$ per barrel compared to 10.1$ per barrel in the previous quarter.The Maximum Buy back price is fixed at Rs 870 per share which is at 10% premium to the Friday's closing price.It would be interesting to note how the share prices react today when the markets open.In my opinion, I expect the stock prices to open lower on account of the drop in profits.
  The most awaited judgement on Vodafone was out on Friday.And Vodafone won the case against the IT Department.The Apex court asked the IT department to refund Rs.2500 crores to the company with a 4% interest rate.This landmark judgement is set to pave the way for the company which is planning for an Indian IPO.Vodafone uses OnMobile's Value added services like speech recognition,ring back tones in its own network and its partner networks across its worldwide operations.OnMobile is an Infosys seeded company and provides speech-enabled services in various Indian and international languages.I would advise a short-medium term Buy on OnMobile Global Limited around the Friday's closing price(74.60).
 Most of the Asian markets are closed in this week on account of Lunar New year(Refer to my Friday's article for details). In India, it is a truncated trading week as we celebrate Republic day on Thursday.The FNO expiry for the January series is on Wednesday.Inflation for the week ended 14th January to be announced on Friday, the 27th as Thursday the 26th is a holiday on account of Republic Day.The first policy meet of RBI for the year 2012 will happen on Tuesday the 24th.

Disclosure- I do not hold any of the stocks discussed in the article.

Alex sir's Nifty(spot) view for the day.
Resistances are at 5085,5115.Supports are at 5012,5000

Bulls give high five to 5K mark.

Bulls reclaimed the 5000 mark on Nifty yesterday as the Asian indices rallied for the day.Better Q3 earnings of companies like HDFC Bank, Hero Moto Corp.,Bajaj Auto helped the index to close above the 5000 mark for the day.Rupee supported the sentiment and closed at 50.25 against the US Dollar.Lot of big events are unfolding in the days to come.Today is a big day with the index heavy weight Reliance announcing its Q3 results after market hours.Reliance may announce share buy back and the stock rallied on Wednesday on account of this and it was up by around three fourth of a percentage yesterday.On the negative side, in December Nomura had cut the Reliance rating to ,"Neutral", from, "Buy" and last week Morgan Stanley had cut the target price of Reliance to Rs.650 per share.As the refining margins are edging lower added with a slump in output from KG basin, the company may post a decline in earnings.

  All eyes are set on the RBI's first policy meet for the year 2012 scheduled on Tuesday,next week.And the SBI chairman said last week that he is not expecting a CRR cut in this policy meet.Though the food inflation is falling but the manufactured products inflation came at 7.42% for December 2011 compared to 5.39% a year ago I personally feel RBI would adapt a wait and watch stance.

 France and Spain Successfully auctioned medium to long term bonds yesterday at a lesser yield than the previous auctions.This was the first auction of medium to long term bonds after S&P had downgraded.European markets rallied and the CAC closed up by almost 2% for the day.

 In the USA,initial jobless claims fell to 352,000 beating the analyst's expectation and the consumer price index was unchanged.And the US housing starts fell more than the forecast to -4.1% in December compared to 9.1% in November.Dow Jones initially edged lower but picked up soon and closed on a higher note for the day.

I expect Nifty to open positive tracking the Asian indices.Results of Wipro and Rupee's movement to decide the direction for IT stocks.Reliance Industries will be volatile for the day with a negative bias.Banking and other rate sensitive stocks will be volatile ahead of the RBI's policy meet.Stay cautious in the second half of the day as Reliance will be announcing results after the market hours.Avoid carrying leveraged positions for Monday.

Chinese Markets will be closed through out next week on account of Chinese New Year. Hong Kong markets are closed till Wednesday.Malaysian and South Korean markets are closed till Tuesday.

Disclosure- I do not hold any of the stocks discussed in the article.

Alex sir's View on Nifty(spot) for the day.
Resistances for the day are at 5050 and 5065.
Supports are at  5000 and 4934.

Bulls are back with a Vengeance

Bulls are back with a vengeance in 2012.Let me back this claim with some data.Nifty future is up by 7.4% * since the last trading day of 2011.Rupee continues its strength and finally ended at 50.73 yesterday.Government's move to contain the fiscal deficit by hiking the import duty on gold and silver boosted the sentiment for rupee.As the bulls were looking out for a reason to cheer,Chinese data came in handy.Q4 GDP of China came at 8.9% which was higher than the consensus expectation.Industrial production and retail sales climbed 12.8% and 18.1% respectively compared to the same period a year ago.
  Reliance rallied for the day and ended up by nearly 4% which fueled the rally in the index.Heard from sources that the company may ask the Government to refund its investments if it is forced to give up any portion of the KG-D6 block.Maruti sky rocketed again yesterday as the company had announced price hikes in all its model except Swift DZire.For more information related to the reason for not hiking the prices of Swift DZire, refer to my previous day's article. Metal stocks were star performers as the Chinese data was encouraging.But analysts are pointing out that the lower steel output of China and the lower demand from Europe due to the crisis are the reasons for the fall in BDI(Baltic Dry Index).BDI had fallen down by 50% and was down for the past 19 consecutive days and is below the 1000 mark.It is now near Jan 2009 lows.
  Yesterday, Telecom Disputes Settlement Appellate Tribunal extended the stay on telecom department's ban on 3G roaming.The tribunal would resume hearing on the appeal by the mobile operators on February 2nd if they decide that they have the jurisdiction.
  European and the US markets ended in green as the Chinese data, successful Spanish bond auction(as the borrowing costs fell), and the US manufacturing data boosted the sentiment.US manufacturing rose to a 9 month high in the month of January.It came at 13.48% compared to 8.19% in December and was much higher than the consensus expectation.

 I expect Nifty to open flat for the day.Though some of my trader friends to whom I spoke with are of the view that TCS would rally for the day,I expect it to trend lower.(Disclaimer- Neither me nor my friends to whom I spoke with  have position in TCS).
  The magical 5000 mark is just a few yards away in Nifty.Will the bulls take that out with ease or lose steam and say the grapes are sour? Fingers crossed.

Alex sir's Nifty(spot) view for the day.

Nifty resistances are at 4985,5000 and 5018.

Supports are at 4939,4905

Nifty bounces from lows on CRR cut optimism.

Yesterday Nifty opened lower reacting to the S&P downgrade of EU nations.Nifty futures had hit a low of 4,835.25 in the morning session and it was seen trading off the lows after the announcement of inflation data for the month of December.It had hit a high of 4,899.70 in the noon session as market participants expected some kind of monetary easing from the RBI in its first policy meet of the year 2012 on Jan 24th. WPI inflation for the month of December 2011 came at 7.47% which is considerably lesser than the 9.11% for the same period a year ago.
    Index heavy weights INFY and TCS were up by around 2% as TCS is set to announce its quarterly results today.SBI was up by around 3% as the Bank's chairman confirmed yesterday that the Government is set to infuse Rs.6000-8000 crores into the bank by March 31st and the infusion will be done through preferential allotment of equity by the bank to the Government.In another news, SBI is expected to raise the interest on its car loans by half a percent from today.
    Maruti was the star performer among the Nifty stocks and was up by around 5% for the day.Maruti is set to launch the new version of Swift DZire by early February.The new car to have length lesser than 4 meters.The present model is 4.16 meters in length and it has an excise duty of 22%. The new model with lesser than 4 meters length falls into small car category and has just 10% excise duty.
    Reliance Industries extended its fall for the day and was down by more than 2% for the day.Last week Morgan Stanley downgraded Reliance Ind. to under-perform with a downward target price of 650Rs per share.

  In the International front, EFSF loses its AAA rating and is now assigned AA+ with a negative outlook(In my Yesterday's article I have written that the Banks of the nations downgraded by S&P and the EFSF may be downgraded).Now expect the banks to be downgraded in the Euro zone.In a not so surprising move, Moody's retained AAA rating of France and said it is still reviewing the stable outlook assigned to France.If you remember,in August when US was downgraded by S&P ,Moody's and Fitch maintained the AAA rating of US.

  France successfully carried out the bond auction yesterday and the Moody's outlook helped the European indices to edge higher for the day.

Asian Markets are trading higher for the day and today around 0730 hours IST, China announces the GDP,Industrial production and retail sales data.

 Chinese data to set the tone for the Asian markets for the day.Expect Nifty to open positive tracking the Asian markets.Stay cautious at higher levels.I expect huge volatility in stocks like HCLTech and TCS as they are announcing the Q3 results today.

Alex sir's Nifty View for the day. 
 Resistances are at 4900 and 4913. Supports are at 4860 and 4825.

Market Report - S&P and Friday the 13th.

Markets on Friday hit the lows of the day after the open and then started moving up around noon and hit fresh highs for the day.One reason being the short squeeze above the key resistance levels and the other reason being the successful EU bond auction on Thursday at a lesser yield.Friday was the 12th consecutive trading day wherein the Nifty hit intraday highs which was above the previous close.(Meaning-You could have made money by holding overnight long position around the closing price). Reliance Industries edged lower for the day.Finally the indices lost the gains in the last hour of trade to end up by three fourth of a percentage.

 European markets were volatile as there were news about France losing the AAA and the EU indices closed lower for the day.After the EU markets shut shop, S&P announced the new credit ratings of 16 EU nations and France lost its AAA rating.If you remember,USA was downgraded on Friday 5th,August 2011.

Click on the image  for enlarged view.

This week we may see the banks of these nations downgraded as well.EFSF may be downgraded too.
France is set to auction 11 Billion USD worth of bonds today.Japanese indices are down by more than one and a half percentage in early morning trades.I expect our markets to open lower reacting to the S&P downgrade.Use strict stop losses for your positions and stay cautious.I expect the result season to be muted with earning downgrades and Forex losses.Inflation data for the month of December 2011 to be announced today and the results of TCS and HCL Tech to be announced tomorrow.

US markets are closed today on account of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.


Alex sir's Nifty(spot) view for the day.


Supports are at 4830 and 4800. Resistances are at  4865 and 4885

Market Report

Action packed yesterday ended down with huge volatility.INFY's muted guidance hammered the stock and the other IT companies.HDFC posted good results and the stock ended positive by more than a percentage.INFY was down by more than 8% and is currently trading below the 200 day moving average.Investors who would like to accumulate the IT Giant can wait for few days for the stock to settle down.

 IIP data for November came better than expected but it went unnoticed by the bulls as the index heavy weight INFY and RIL (both account for nearly 17% index weightage) were down.IIP for November is at 5.9% compared to negative 5.1%(Revised to negative 4.7%). Food inflation came a bit up at negative 2.9%(week ended December 31st)compared to negative 3.36 percent the week ended December 24th.Core inflation is  at 7.9% which lead to the fall in the indices as this may delay the RBI's rate cuts.

In the International front Spain sold 13 Billion $ worth of bonds yesterday(twice the sales target) as the yield was down.Italy sold bonds at  half the yield which it paid on December 12th auction.Most of the European indices ended in green.Fitch placed long-term ratings on Bank of Ireland's UK covered bond program and all bonds issued under it on credit watch negative.

In the USA, retail sales for December was flat compared to the month of November and the jobless claims rose after
falling continuously for the past few weeks.But the indices edged higher on EU optimism.

 I expect our markets to open positive tracking the Asian peers.Stay cautious at higher levels.A move below day's low in the second half may accelerate the fall.

Alex sir's view on Nifty for the day.
 Supports for the day are at 4815,4800 and 4746.  Resistances are at 4840,4874 and 4880.

Market Report- Infy,HDFC to kick start the Q3 Results season.

As expected it was a flat day yesterday.The indices were seen moving between positive and negative zone in the first hour of trade and the index heavy weight RELIANCE was simultaneously hitting the highs and lows in the first hour of trade.INFY which edged up higher in the first hour of trade lost the steam and edged lower for the day so are the other IT companies.The reason could be the Rupee strengthening and a cautious view of the market participants ahead of the results of INFY today.Reliance edged up later to continue the upward move.

INFY , HDFC results, IIP data, inflation data for the month of December are to be announced for the day.IIP data for the month of November may come at a much higher levels compared to the negative data for the month of October.Inflation data for December would be much lesser than the November's data.As this is widely expected I don't see markets rallying for a good set of numbers.INFY results to set the tone for the results season ahead.

German bond sales attracted stronger demand as the GDP for year 2011 came at 3% and the deficit is just 1% of the GDP.Spanish Industrial production for November came at -7% YoY the previous one was -4% (Revised to -4.2%). European indices edged lower for the day.

Tension between Iran and the west are growing day by day and the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist yesterday added fuel to the fire.I will write a separate article on the same to throw more light on the recent developments.

I expect our markets to be volatile with a negative bias ahead of the big events scheduled for the day.

Alex sir's Nifty levels for the day.

Nifty resistance is at 4886 and 4900.  Supports are at 4836,4828 and 4802.

Market Report-Rupee strengthens

Rupee strengthened again yesterday to close below the 52 mark as strong inflows of foreign funds continue into debt instruments.Indian Government finally allowed 100% FDI in single brand retail.This would help INR to strengthen further in the near term.Reliance and Bharti which were down on Monday were up by 4% and 3% respectively.Only 3 stocks ended in red in the Nifty 50 stocks.

Industrial Production data of France which came just before the EU open surprised positively and the EU indices rallied for the day.US markets ended up for the day too.

Indian IIP data and the inflation data to be released tomorrow.INFY and HDFC kick start the earning season tomorrow.
INFY's guidance could set the tone for the entire results season as it did happen in the Q1 Infy results.Rupee hedging could have played spoil sport in the earnings.HDFC posted a good set of numbers in Q2 and the loan growth was higher than the industry average.As the RBI went on a rate hike spree in the last quarter it would be interesting to watch the results of HDFC and it could set the tone for the entire banking sector.

Slowing economy and huge debt could land the EU nations into more trouble and nations like Italy and few other nations would be downgraded in this month, said Fitch ratings yesterday.Italy currently holds A+ rating and it was placed on Credit watch negative in the month of December along with nations like Spain, Belgium, the Irish Republic, Slovenia and Cyprus.

I expect markets to open flat to positive tracking the Asian peers and the second half may see some volatility ahead of the big day tomorrow.

Alex sir's view on Nifty for the day.

Resistances for the day are at  4865,4878 and 4885. It would face tough resistance to cross these levels for the day. Supports are at 4845 and 4825.

Market Report-Credit Suisse upgrades India to Neutral.

As the EU euphoria is settling down and the reality is dawning in EU, our markets gave up all its gains after the European markets opened.Index heavy weight RELIANCE extended its losses as the company announced a 3 week maintenance in its Jamnagar distillation facility.The European indices edged lower and the US markets ended flat.

More pressure for KFA as SBI,BOB and BOI terms KFA's loan as NPAs. KFA's market share fell to 5th position in November compared to the 3rd position in October.

M&M rallied yesterday as the company announced that it is investing 800 crores in Korean arm SsangYong.It fell by around 8% on Tuesday and Wednesday as BofA had cut its target price.

CLSA has upgraded Cairn India and BPCL and it had downgraded GAIL and Ranbaxy.

Credit Suisse says  India's valuations are cheap and upgrades India to Neutral from Under-weight.It added that a fall in headline inflation and fewer earning downgrades in December are the reasons to upgrade India.India is the fourth most under valued market in Asia.

In another surprise move RBI raised the FCCB limit to 750 Million Dollars from 500 Million Dollars.This would encourage more funds to flow into the nation.RBI's Dy.Governor said that the interest rates are unlikely to rise further.

In the International arena, Iran lawmakers discussed on Wednesday to devise a relevant plan by which the foreign warships crossing the Hormuz straits will have to obtain permission from Iran.This is clearly aimed at USA's warships as US operates two air bases in Kuwait , one in UAE ,one in Qatar and one in Oman.The Qatar and the Oman bases are the largest bases operated by US outside US.Oman's base is the only base outside of Hormuz strait and all the other above mentioned bases can be reached only by crossing the Hormuz strait.On Thursday the Saudi and the all the gulf states were put on war alert.As US is headed for elections this November,it would be interesting to watch how it will tackle this issue.

I expect our markets to open lower tracking the Asian peers and we may bounce back from lower levels.

 

 

Alex sir's Nifty view for the day.

Nifty(spot) Resistances are at 4785, 4820,4840.Support for the day are at 4703 and 4675.

Market Report-EU euphoria settles down.

Yesterday it was a volatile session with a negative bias.Sensex had hit a high of 16004 after the European indices opened.As the European indices were flirting with the positive zone after opening,our indices slipped into red.All the divestment candidates of the Government rose after the new announcement by SEBI.

RIL had announced a planned maintenance for one of its crude distillation units at the Jamnagar SEZ for a period of 3 weeks.The stock edged lower for the day.

M&M continued its downward journey yesterday and it was down by more than 4%. Two days back BofA had cut the ratings to under-perform.
HeroMoto Corp unveiled 2 motor cycle models and 1 scooter model yesterday.After Honda's exit from the joint venture, this was the second launch.The first one was the much anticipated on-off roader, the Impulse.These launches are expected to strengthen its market share in the second largest 2 wheeler market.

ONGC board gives the nod to Rs 115 Cr Investment on Heera field redevelopment. And the board announced a Rs 6.25 per share interim dividend and the payment of the same shall start from Jan 10th.In another news ONGC had notified 2 prospective hydrocarbon discoveries.

April- December Tax figures were released yesterday.
 Income Tax Mop-up  Rs 1.26 Lk Cr up by 19%.
 Corporate Tax Mop-up at Rs 2.7 Lk Cr up by 12.5%
 Direct Tax Mop-up at Rs 3.96 Lk Cr up by 14.5%

China's Non manufacturing PMI came at 56% compared to 49.7% for the month of November.The manufacturing PMI came at 50.3% compared to 49% in November.

EU shares edged lower as the Hungary's Forint fell lower against Euro and the Italian UniCredit SpA launched a 51000 Crore($9.68 billion) worth of rights issue at a huge discount.

US markets closed almost flat for the day.

I expect our markets to open lower tracking the Asian peers and keep an eye on stocks like HeroMotocorp,RIL,ONGC.Inflation data for the Week ended December 24th to be released for the day.After 2 weeks of euphoria the European debt crisis is popping up again.Keep an eye on European indices.



Alex sir's Nifty view.

Nifty(spot) supports are at 4730,4720 and 4620. Resistances are at 4775,4780 and 4820

Market Report

Yesterday ,Nifty futures opened at 4680.55(It was the day's low as well) and there was no looking back.We closed near the day's high for the day.India's PMI ,direct entry for individual FIIs into equity markets were the good news in the domestic front.Interest rate sensitive stocks rallied for the day as the Central Bank hinted at easing the monetary policy.A postponement in the fuel price hike supported the sentiment as well(It was widely expected that the petrol prices would be hiked by 2Rs to a liter).

A good set of economic data from the EU supported the rally in the later part of the day.German unemployment fell more than expected and UK's PMI rose by 2 points in December to 49.6 compared to 47.7(revised) in the month of November.Both these data surprised the markets positively.

If you remember SEBI had earlier directed the promoters to dilute their stake to 75% or below before June 2013.But QIP placement to dilute the same has not been allowed.To facilitate the dilution of promoter shares SEBI had yesterday allowed the auctioning of the promoter stake through the secondary markets.This move would help the divestment plans of the Government and aimed at helping the promoters to raise capital either by diluting their stakes or by issuing fresh equity.

In the macro economic front, Iran conducted its Missiles tests and had warned USA of an attack if the USA's air craft carrier enters into the territorial waters of Iran again.And tension is mounting between Turkey and Syria as a Russian aircraft carrier and a number of Navy ships are sent to Syria,mentioned Syrian newspaper Al Watan.After a long gap Russia is seen entering into the International arena with its Military supremacy.Russia had earlier supplied Syria with its supersonic anti-ship Missiles.

These developments had sent the crude and Gold prices higher.

Nikkei had opened after a 2 day holiday and is trading higher by more than a percentage.Hang Seng trades marginally negative.

I expect our markets to open flat to positive and traders can book profits in their longs around 4800 levels.Stay cautious at higher levels.

Alex Sir's Nifty(Spot) View:
Resistances for the day are at 4780  and 4810.  Supports for the day are at 4735 and 4705.

Market Report- Middle East-Unrest.

Last week was not so good for our markets.Heavyweights like Reliance had hit 52 week lows.In the past 10 trading sessions FIIs were seen selling to the tune of about 3000 crores.World Markets rallied for the week with thin volumes.Volumes this week may be low as well.With good set of economic data coming from US, the markets across the globe are rallying and we are left out.
  With fiscal deficit widening and the decline in forex reserve by 93000 Crores in the past 7 weeks added fuel to the fire.Inflation for the week ended December 10th fell sharply giving room for RBI to cut rates in the next policy meet.The Rupee is still hovering around 53 mark and the OMCs are planning to raise the petrol prices soon will again have a negative impact.
 Since November I have been writing about a possible attack on Iran which may send the crude prices to sky rocket(Analysts were talking about 175$ per barrel and even some were arguing about a possible 250$ per barrel),as Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz through which 40% of the total world's oil trade takes place.Israel was planning an attack around Christmas time and the plan was delayed when the US drone was captured.The good news is that if the Hormuz strait is closed, the oil prices moving northward will be contained as the pipeline construction from Abu Dhabi's largest oil fields to Fujairah is complete.With this pipeline under operation the trade through Hormuz strait can be bypassed.The pipeline will be tested next month and it is a breakthrough for UAE's oil exports.
  Tension between Syria and Turkey are escalating as US Defense secretary visited Turkey a week back and the Vice President of Syria visited Russia.
  Kindly hedge your overnight long positions as a fully blown out war may send the equities down the drain and the commodity prices to sky rocket.As we have already witnessed the attack on Libya and Egypt this year, I strongly feel that the attack on Iran which is suspected to be equipped with Nuclear weapons and the attack on Syria equipped with Russian missiles will have worse impact than the former attacks.

 The later part of the article is to throw some light on the events which may happen early next year and to equip our readers with the necessary prowess to tackle, if such a situation arises.

 Enjoy the last week of this year.Volumes may be thin.Avoid leveraged positions.

Have a happy week ahead!!

Alex sir's Nifty(spot) view for the Day.
 Supports for the day are at 4690, 4674, 4715. Resistances are at 4745,4771,4785

Market Report

Yesterday, Nifty opened negative for the day and drifted to test lower levels and bounced back from the lower levels after the European indices opened positive.Finally it seems that the Santa Claus rally is materializing.Much awaited inflation figures for the week ended December 10th came at lower levels and food inflation fell sharply.The Banking stocks rallied for the day expecting a rate cut from the central bank as the inflationary pressure is easing.

To reduce the budget deficit, India plans to borrow 50,000 crores by pledging the shares it holds in the corporates.
Fitch ratings said in its 2012 outlook that the Indian economic growth to rebound to 7.5 in FY12-13 from 7% in current fiscal.It adds that after taking no steps for sometime the Government has taken initiatives on SEZs and increasing the foreign participation in debt market.These moves are likely to have a positive impact.


Telecom stocks faced selling pressure as DoT said 3G mobile roaming services are illegal.IT stocks fell as the Oracle's(Third largest Software Company) earnings fell short of street expectation in the US.

US GDP is revised to 1.8% for the third quarter and the analysts predicted it to be unchanged from the previous estimates of 2%. Continuing the trend for past few weeks, US jobless claims fell to April 2008 lows.US indices ended up by more than half a percent.

Japanese Markets are shut for the day as the country celebrates Emperor's Birthday.Rest of Asia is trading positive.

European indices rallied as the UK Q3 GDP is revised higher.Though the indices advanced, the volumes were thin ahead of the holiday season.

I expect our markets to open positive tracking the global peers.Stay cautious at higher levels.European indices are set to open positive for the day.

We wish you all a Merry Christmas!!

Alex Sir's view on Nifty(spot).
Supports for the day are 4698, 4672 , 4608. Resistances for the day are 4768 ,4782.

Market Report

With the rally in global indices and the Moody's giving stable outlook on Indian Government bond ratings at Baa3(For more, refer to the P.S)made our indices to rally by more than 3%. Rupee gained to 52.5 as the markets rallied.Reliance Industries rallied by almost 5%.Reliance inds invested in Terra Power LLC through one of its subsidiaries.Terra Power LLC is into ultra modern nuclear power generation.

Top IT companies are planning to reduce the onsite work by 5% to avoid stringent visa regulations and to cut the costs.This comes at a time when the the US House of Representatives have tabled the bipartisan bill, popularly called the Call Center Bill.

Inflation for the week ending December 10th to be announced today.After a fall to 4.35% the previous week, it would be interesting to watch whether the inflation continues to ease.Analysts expect food inflation to ease to 3% by first week of January.


To avoid a credit crunch in EU , the ECB injected 489 Billion Euro into the EU banking system.This move aims at increasing the liquidity of the EU banking system and averting a crisis in the near term.


Expect our markets to open flat to negative tracking the global cues and the inflation data will decide the direction for the day.


(India's foreign currency bond ceiling is unchanged at Baa2, and the foreign currency bank deposit ceiling is now Baa3. The local currency bond and bank deposit ceilings are unified at A1. In addition, the Indian government's local currency short-term rating has been changed to P-3, from NP)

Alex Sir's Nifty levels.

Nifty supports are at 4590 and 4572. Resistances are at 4728 and 4745

Market Report-Santa Claus Rally

Indian Indices fell for the fifth straight day in a row.I am sure the macro economic factors have started affecting us in a big way.Today,we may see a gap up opening tracking the rally of the US and European indices.Asian indices are trading positive for the day.Stay cautious at higher levels and retail intra-day traders, kindly have a stop-loss.


Italy’s Q3 GDP is set to be released today. As the country is reeling under pressure to plug the deficit hole am sure the GDP numbers would negatively surprise.But as this is widely expected I don't expect a Knee jerk reaction by the markets.Keep an eye on the same.


Europe's VStoxx -the volatility Index or the Fear Index is at the lowest level in 4 1/2 months.

Existing home sales in the US will be announced today and it is expected to gather momentum.

Back home, Winter session of the Parliament is extended till December 29th.If measures are not taken to control the fiscal deficit we are in for a deep trouble,as the FIIs have pushed the panic button and is evident from the fact that most of the Nifty 50 stocks making yearly lows and CLSA downgraded India to Neutral from Over-weight.

On 7th of December Nifty futures made a high of 5134.65 and we made a low of 4538 yesterday.A fall of about 12% within 2 weeks.With most of the Nifty 50 stocks hitting yearly lows , the heavy weight Reliance Inds hit 52 week low in yesterday's trade.Since December 1st, the interesting thing about our markets is, everyday we made a low which was much lower than the previous close.

Let us hope that the policy makers fix the policy deficit, it would do more good in bringing down the fiscal deficit.Traders around the world have started talking about the Santa Claus rally and it seems to be materializing.I hope we catch that virus.

Alex sir's Nifty(spot) levels

Nifty has Resistance at 4607 and 4686 - 4699.

Supports are 4500 and 4488.

Market Report

For four days in a row, our markets ended in negative.Realty,Banking and Auto stocks lead the fall for the day.Reliance Industries ended up by almost 2% for the day.SBI,ICICI,TataSteel,

Sterlite ind,Maruti,L&T,BHEL are the stocks which had hit 52 week's lows for the day.Asian markets ended lower for the day as the North Korean Premier passed away and the Armies of South Korea and Japan were put on high alert.

Parliament on Monday cleared the Digital cable TV bill.Information and Broadcast Minister said, her ministry is in talks with Set top box manufacturers to make them available at around Rs.1000-1200.TRAI is expected to impose tariff capping for channel subscription and the users need not subscribe to a whole bouquet of channels.This move could eat into the revenues of the companies which are into DTH business.Keep on eye on DTH companies like Dish TV,RelianceBig,Bharti,SunTv,TataSky and Videocon.

Australian and New Zealand Dollar strengthens against the major currencies in early trades today while Yen declines.

CLSA had pulled out its investments from ICICI and HDFC recently and for the first time since 2002 , it had cut the weightage of India to 6% from the earlier 11% in the Long only Asia-Ex Japan portfolio.

Expect our markets to open positive tracking the Asian peers and it may edge higher for the day.Avoid shorting for the day.

Alex sir's view on Nifty(spot).
Supports for Nifty are at 4601,4562,4487. Resistances are at 4628,4648,4683.

Market Report-Hope is not a strategy.

Hope is not a Strategy.Once you complete reading this article, you will understand why I have written about hope.The last policy meet of RBI for the year is happening today.And there is lot of speculation and rumors doing the rounds about the rate cuts,unchanged rates or even a rate hike.

Let us consider different scenarios.(Kindly read all the scenarios before taking a trading decision).

A rate cut.

Should a rate cut be announced? Yes.There is liquidity crunch in the system and the Banking system needs a adrenalin shot in the near term.What would be the after effects? There would be more cash flow, more loan disbursements as the rates are less.More Auto sales,more real estate sales.With the Central Bank taking all the necessary measures to bring fiscal deficit to the desired levels,it may announce a rate cut.

Unchanged Rates.

Should the rates be unchanged? Yes.Except China, countries like Australia,New Zealand, South Korea,Indonesia left their rates unchanged in the last policy meet.This is the last policy meet of the RBI in this year.So RBI may pause for the moment and shift to a wait and watch mode to see how things are shaping up and then take a decision in the next policy meet.

A rate hike.

Should the rates be hiked? Yes.With Rupee weakening to all time lows sending the cost of imports to the roof and with September's inflation revised to double digits and the November inflation still above the 9% mark(there are chances that it can be revised to double digits too). Normally inflation drops during the Winter season.But this is not the case this year.With the RBI curbing Rupee forward trades yesterday and it takes into effect immediately both for the domestic and Foreign traders, it indicates the fiscal deficit is blown out of proportion.Adding fuel to the fire is the 9 Billion Dollar error in the export data.So RBI even may take a hawkish stance and hike the rates.

Hawkish or Dovish, the strategy for the day is to wait and watch.Don't hope for any of the above scenarios according to your convenience and take huge leveraged positions.Why?? Yeah.You know it.Hope is not a strategy.

Alex Sir's Nifty(spot) levels.

Nifty resistances are at 4765,4810and 4851. Supports are at 4719,4673.

Market Report

Yesterday,Sensex ended below 16000 mark for the day as higher than expected inflation data dampened the sentiment.European indices opened lower for the day and a fall in international commodities prices pushed the metal stocks lower for the day.Banking and the Auto stocks fell after the inflation data was announced.Rupee scaled new lows against the dollar for the day.

European indices ended down almost by 2% and US indices ended down by almost a percent and a half. USD gained against all the currencies sending the commodity prices to crash.

Hang seng opened negative today and is down by 2% for the day.Almost all the Asian indices are trading negative for the day.The only good news for the day is HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI came at 49 compared to 47.7. Still it is trading below the 50 mark.Anything lesser than 50 is contraction.

Dollar index trades above the 80 mark.

Third Advance tax numbers to be announced for the day.

Alex sir's Nifty(spot) levels.
Support for the day is at 4693 and 4650. Resistances for the day is 4785 and 4820.