Today we have seen value buying in the morning but couldn’t able to stay above 3500 levels due to heavily over-bought situation. The 5 day RSI is above 74 and Nifty volatility index is at around 50 suggesting unexpected selling from higher levels. Nifty may get one more day for moving above 3500, if it can, then we will see further uptrend otherwise the ongoing rally will come to an end, and intermittent down trend can start. Nifty futures has support at 3428 and 3382. If Nifty futures fall below this, Nifty may witness further selloff. The probability of Nifty to close (during May expiry) around 3606 will be at 11%, where as the probability of Nifty fall below 3302 during May expiry is only 5.10%.
